HermesLinesThe under, at the best number on the board.
We project every NFL player prop, keep the unders our model gives at least a 55% chance, and take each one at the highest line across DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars. Every pick is graded in public, at the line and book it was posted at.
+10.5% ROI on confidence 6+ picks on Sunday of Week 4: 107–74, +18.98 units.
Free account, no card needed.
- Book line
- 30.5 at BetMGM, -115
- Our projection
- 29.5
- The pick
- Under 30.5
One of 24 picks on the current NFL board.
The record
Graded against the lines sportsbooks actually posted, with the sample size next to every number. Break-even at standard −110 odds is 52.4%.
| Test | Picks | Won | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL Sunday of Week 4, confidence 6+ picks 107–74, +18.98 units. | 181 | 59.1% | +10.5% |
| NFL 2026 season so far, confidence 6+ picks 193–140, +27.65 units. Weeks 3, 4, graded at the posted line and book. | 333 | 58.0% | +8.3% |
| NBA Under rule, 2025-26 season 134 nights the rule never saw, at the best of four books; +2.4% at DraftKings alone. | 1,965 | 55.0% | +3.8% |
| NFL Line-shopped unders, ML model, 2025 season Every regular-season game; the model never trained on 2025, the rule was designed on it. | 3,930 | 57.1% | +3.9% |
| NFL Tight-end overs, 2023 season A season the rule was never built on, tested once, unchanged. | 376 | 66.0% | +19.0% |
Premier League forecasts are free: our model scored 0.978 log loss against Opta's 0.993 over 2,330 matches. See this week's forecasts. Full record, game by game.
How a pick gets made
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Project
Every player prop gets a projection from a machine-learning model — gradient-boosted trees and a neural network trained on every NFL game since 2015 — using recent form and usage, opponent defense and the Vegas spread and total.
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Shop
We keep the unders the model gives at least a 55% chance and find the highest line across four books. In the 2025 test, those picks returned 3.9% at the best line.
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Post
Picks go up 15–45 minutes before each kickoff, after inactives are announced, with the book and price to bet. After the game they are graded automatically.
Plans
NFL is live now. NBA and NHL return in October.
One sport
$20 a month
Every pick for the sport you choose, with the book and price to bet it.
Two sports
$30 a month
Any two sports. $10 less than buying them separately.
Everything
$50 a month
NFL, NBA and NHL picks, plus the NHL player ratings. $10 a month less than three single plans.
Questions
What does confidence mean?
Confidence runs from 1 to 9 and measures how far our probability for the under sits above the probability the book's price implies. A 6 means at least 4 points of edge. It is the model's view, not a guaranteed win rate.
Why mostly unders?
Across the full 2025 season, unders on NFL player props won more often than their prices implied. Taking them at the best of four lines is where most of the edge comes from. The one kind of over we post is tight ends' receptions and receiving yards, a system tested on its own on the 2023 season.
When do picks post?
NFL picks post 15–45 minutes before each kickoff on Thursday, Sunday and Monday. Lines move, so bet them at the book shown while the price is still there. A board that is out of date is marked on the page.
Can I switch plans or cancel?
Yes, any time. Cancel before your next billing date and you won't be charged again.